Juventus 0-3 Lazio: three goals from 0.55 xG
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Lazio: 0.55 xG, three goals (+2.45)
- Juventus: 9 shots, lowest of 8 matches this season
- Tavares: 3 key passes, 8 of 19 duels won
Lazio clinical on a low-xG night
Lazio won at the Allianz Stadium without needing many chances. Their expected goals came to 0.55, yet they finished +2.45 on xG with goals in the 37th, 66th and 89th minutes. Christos Mandas also kept a clean sheet by saving both of the shots on target he faced.
Juventus had the ball but few shots
Juventus's possession was in line with their season average, but nine shots was the lowest of eight matches this season, and only two were on target. Their xG per shot matched their average, which suggests the shortfall was in volume rather than quality.
Six changes, no breakthrough
Juventus brought in Bremer, Jhon Lucumí, Douglas Luiz, Zeki Çelik, Nicolás González and Randal Kolo Muani. Kolo Muani took three shots, none on target. Lazio made a single change, Josip Šutalo, who finished with three interceptions.
The opener set the tone
Oliver Provstgaard's goal in the 37th minute, set up by Mattia Zaccagni, was worth +1.0 FN xPts to Lazio, while Juventus lost 0.9 FN xPts. It moved the two sides' totals by more than any other moment. Gustav Isaksen doubled the lead from a Nuno Tavares pass, and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru added a late third.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Nuno Tavares 8.7Dominant
He created three chances, assisted Gustav Isaksen and won 8 of 19 duels.
As FN MOM, Tavares earned most of his value going forward: three key passes, two shots of his own and the assist for Isaksen's goal that made it 2-0. He also made three tackles and two blocks, and his eight duels won were more than anyone else managed in the match. That workload came while Lazio held the lead for 53 minutes.
Game state
0-10-20-3
Juventus ahead 0 min · level 37 min · Lazio ahead 53 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
37'
Oliver Provstgaard
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Mattia Zaccagni +0.3 · JUV −0.9
+1.0
66'
Gustav Isaksen
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Nuno Tavares +0.2 · JUV −0.3
+0.5
89'
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
Goal · assist Andrea Pinamonti · JUV 0.0
0.0
Juventus
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.2Time effect −0.5→ League points won 0
Lazio
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +1.5Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.5→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
JuventusLazio
0.82Expected goals (xG)0.55
Compared with usual
Juventus
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2 | low |
| Conceded | 3 | 0.75 | |
| xG | 0.82 | 1.6 | |
| xG against | 0.55 | 0.58 | |
| Shots | 9 | 17.9 | low |
| On target | 2 | 6.5 | low |
| Shots faced | 9 | 7.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.09 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 58% | 56.6% | |
| Passes | 526 | 558.4 | |
| Corners | 5 | 7.4 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 13.8 | low |
Lazio
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.6 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0.86 | |
| xG | 0.55 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 0.82 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 9 | 14.6 | |
| On target | 3 | 4.1 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 13 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 42% | 52.6% | |
| Passes | 382 | 485.7 | |
| Corners | 7 | 5.1 | |
| Fouls | 7 | 13.3 | |
Timeline
- 37'
Goal
Oliver Provstgaard league goal #1 assist Mattia Zaccagni
- 41'
Yellow
Kenneth Taylor
- 45'
Sub
Kerim-Sam Alajbegović → Nick Woltemade
- 48'
Yellow
Mattia Zaccagni
- 66'
Goal
Gustav Isaksen league goal #2 assist Nuno Tavares
- 67'
Sub
Douglas Luiz → Francisco Conceição
- 67'
Sub
Nicolás González → Edon Zhegrova
- 69'
Sub
Kenneth Taylor → Fisayo Dele-Bashiru
- 69'
Sub
Tijjani Noslin → Andrea Pinamonti
- 74'
Sub
Zeki Çelik → Andrea Cambiaso
- 79'
Sub
Gustav Isaksen → Manuel Lazzari
- 86'
Sub
Mattia Zaccagni → Pedraza
- 87'
Sub
Pape Matar Sarr → Jérémie Boga
- 89'
Goal
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru league goal #1 assist Andrea Pinamonti
Category leaders
- Key passesNuno Tavares3
- Duels wonNuno Tavares8/19
- DribblesRandal Kolo Muani2/4
- Defensive actionsPierre Kalulu6
- ShotsRandal Kolo Muani3 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonDouglas Luiz4
#Serie A#Juventus#Lazio#Nuno Tavares#Oliver Provstgaard#Matchweek 7
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.