Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal: Madueke's late strike off the bench
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 74% possession, Arsenal's highest in nine matches
- One shot on target, Arsenal's lowest in nine matches
- 80': Madueke's goal, +1.6 FN xPts for Arsenal
A substitute breaks the deadlock
Arsenal won 1-0 at the City Ground, and the goal came from the bench. Five starters had changed, with Noni Madueke among those who began as substitutes. He replaced Eberechi Eze in the 45th minute and struck in the 80th, finishing a move set up by Declan Rice. It was his first Premier League goal of the season.
Plenty of the ball, one shot on target
Arsenal had 74% of possession, their highest in nine matches this season, yet managed only one shot on target, their lowest in that run. Rice was the hub of it all, with 98 passes, but that control rarely turned into real threat. The numbers suggest they were content to circulate the ball rather than force chances.
Forest's volume was low in quality
Nottingham Forest finished with two on target and a total xG of 0.79. Their xG per shot sat below the average of their seven matches this season, which suggests quantity rather than quality. Liam Delap and Murillo led the shooting, but neither could turn it into a clear opening for a goal.
The goal that tilted the match
The match stayed level until Madueke's goal. It was worth +1.6 FN xPts to Arsenal, while Nottingham Forest's FN xPts fell by 0.9, the largest combined change in the match. David Raya made two saves, and Arsenal held on for a clean sheet to protect the lead.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Gabriel Magalhães 8.2Dominant
He won 10 of 12 duels and completed 70 of 73 passes in a clean sheet.
As FN MOM, Magalhães earned most of his credit for his defending: two tackles, an interception and a block, plus joint-most duels won in the match alongside Bruno Guimarães. That solidity kept the match goalless until the 80th minute, when Madueke struck, and Forest's 14 shots never produced a reply. He also had two shots himself.
Game state
0-1
Nottingham Forest ahead 0 min · level 80 min · Arsenal ahead 10 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
80'
Noni Madueke
Goal · scorer +1.1 · assist Declan Rice +0.5 · NFO −0.9
+1.6
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.9Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Arsenal
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments +1.6Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.3→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Nottingham ForestArsenal
0.79Expected goals (xG)1.09
Compared with usual
Nottingham Forest
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 0.79 | 1.6 | |
| xG against | 1.09 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 14 | 16.3 | |
| On target | 2 | 3.7 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 11.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 26% | 49% | |
| Passes | 221 | 403.1 | |
| Corners | 8 | 4 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 14.3 | |
Arsenal
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 0.78 | |
| xG | 1.09 | 1.7 | |
| xG against | 0.79 | 0.74 | |
| Shots | 9 | 14.7 | |
| On target | 1 | 5.8 | low |
| Shots faced | 14 | 9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 74% | 58.8% | high |
| Passes | 629 | 528 | high |
| Corners | 6 | 4.8 | |
| Fouls | 8 | 11.1 | |
Timeline
- 17'
Yellow
Neco Williams
- 45'
Sub
Eberechi Eze → Noni Madueke
- 53'
Yellow
Noni Madueke
- 66'
Sub
Ben White → Jurriën Timber
- 66'
Sub
Kai Havertz → Viktor Gyökeres
- 66'
Sub
Bruno Guimarães → Mikel Merino
- 73'
Sub
Dan Ndoye → Arnaud Kalimuendo
- 74'
Sub
Nicolás Domínguez → Ibrahim Sangaré
- 80'
Goal
Noni Madueke league goal #1 assist Declan Rice
- 85'
Sub
James McAtee → Callum Hudson Odoi
- 85'
Sub
Jair → Chris Wood
Category leaders
- Key passesDeclan Rice3
- Duels wonBruno Guimarães10/12
- DribblesBruno Guimarães4/4
- Defensive actionsXaver Schlager8
- ShotsLiam Delap4 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonBukayo Saka3
#Arsenal#Nottingham Forest#Premier League#Noni Madueke#Gabriel Magalhães#Declan Rice
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.