Monza 4-0 Cagliari: clinical finishing beats the shot count
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 2.08, yet four goals: clinical finishing
- Cagliari's four conceded: most in eight matches
- Törnqvist made five saves for a clean sheet
Four goals from fewer shots
Monza claimed a 4-0 win despite having fewer shots than Cagliari. It was their highest-scoring match of the season so far, beating a previous best of three. Cagliari, by contrast, had never conceded more than two in a single match before.
Finishing that outran the chances
Monza outperformed their xG of 2.08 by 1.92 goals. Cagliari produced a near-identical xG without scoring, and all five of their shots on target were saved by Noel Törnqvist. The gap between the sides was in the finishing and the goalkeeping, not in the quality of the openings.
A heavy night by Cagliari's standards
Cagliari have conceded fewer than a goal a match on average this season, so four was a jolt. They won seven corners, well above their season average, and none produced a goal. Monza, for their part, won just two corners, their fewest of the season so far.
Kouadio's opener set the tone
The first goal mattered most. In the 39th minute Eddy Kouadio converted after Dany Mota's assist, worth +1.0 FN xPts to Monza while Cagliari's FN xPts fell by 0.8, the largest combined change of the match. Gustavo Varela doubled the lead early in the second half, and the later goals barely moved FN xPts.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Gustavo Varela 8.9Dominant
Both of his shots were on target and both were goals, and he added an assist.
Attack was where Varela earned his score: two shots, both goals, plus two key passes from only 14 passes. His 47th-minute goal made it 2-0 shortly after the restart, he set up Jay Robinson's strike in the 66th minute and he added the fourth in the 79th. That makes six goals in this competition this season, counting this match.
Game state
1-02-03-04-0
Monza ahead 51 min · level 39 min · Cagliari ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
39'
Eddy Kouadio
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Dany Mota +0.3 · CAG −0.8
+1.0
47'
Gustavo Varela
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Manga Foe Ondoa +0.2 · CAG −0.4
+0.6
66'
Jay Robinson
Goal · assist Gustavo Varela · CAG −0.1
+0.1
79'
Gustavo Varela
Goal · CAG 0.0
0.0
Monza
Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments +1.7Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.1→ League points won 3
Cagliari
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.3Time effect −0.2→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
MonzaCagliari
2.08Expected goals (xG)1.92
Compared with usual
Monza
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1.6 | high |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.9 | |
| xG | 2.08 | 1.8 | |
| xG against | 1.92 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 14 | 15.9 | |
| On target | 6 | 6.1 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 12.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 45% | 45.9% | |
| Passes | 416 | 385.1 | |
| Corners | 2 | 5.1 | low |
| Fouls | 10 | 12.4 | |
Cagliari
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 0.63 | high |
| xG | 1.92 | 1 | |
| xG against | 2.08 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 16 | 10.9 | |
| On target | 5 | 3.8 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 18.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.12 | 0.14 | |
| Possession | 55% | 41.9% | |
| Passes | 503 | 416.9 | |
| Corners | 7 | 3.8 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 10.4 | |
Timeline
- 39'
Goal
Eddy Kouadio league goal #1 assist Dany Mota
- 47'
Goal
Gustavo Varela league goal #5 assist Manga Foe Ondoa
- 53'
Sub
M'Bala Nzola → Alieu Fadera
- 64'
Sub
Dany Mota → Andrea Colpani
- 66'
Goal
Jay Robinson league goal #2 assist Gustavo Varela
- 67'
Sub
Zé Pedro → Yukinari Sugawara
- 67'
Sub
Daniel Maldini → Kevin Carlos
- 76'
Yellow
Harry Winks
- 79'
Goal
Gustavo Varela league goal #6
- 81'
Sub
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro → Michael Folorunsho
- 81'
Sub
Gustavo Varela → Patrick Cutrone
- 81'
Sub
Eddy Kouadio → Adam Bakoune
- 81'
Sub
Alessandro Romano → Alessandro Deiola
- 81'
Sub
Harry Winks → Joseph Liteta
- 82'
Yellow
Samuele Birindelli
- 82'
Yellow
Alieu Fadera
- 87'
Sub
Jay Robinson → Omari Forson
Category leaders
- Key passesDaniel Maldini4
- Duels wonYerry Mina8/12
- DribblesEbenezer Akinsanmiro2/4
- Defensive actionsYerry Mina6
- ShotsPaul Mendy3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonM'Bala Nzola3
#Monza#Cagliari#Serie A#Gustavo Varela#Eddy Kouadio#Noel Törnqvist
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.