Tottenham 3-1 Coventry: three goals from 0.89 xG
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 0.89 xG, 3 goals: +2.11 against expectation
- Coventry: 1 shot on target v season average of 4 (8 matches)
- Spurs led for about 67 minutes
A tight xG, a clear lead
Tottenham won, but xG barely split the sides: 0.89 for Spurs against 0.8 for Coventry. What did separate them was time in front. Spurs spent about 67 minutes ahead, so the scoreboard pressure sat with the visitors for most of the match even though the chance quality was close.
Finishing carried Spurs
Spurs beat their xG by 2.11, scoring far more than the chances suggested. Their xG per shot, 0.06, was below the average of their eight matches this season. That points to a side that created modest chances and finished them efficiently, rather than one that carved out clear openings. James Maddison and Omar Marmoush both took theirs.
Coventry hit the target once
Coventry's only shot on target was Jack Rudoni's equaliser in the 49th minute. Across eight matches this season they average four, so it was a clear dip. Antonín Kinský did not have to make a save, and Brandon Thomas-Asante, who set up the goal, also led all players in defensive actions.
Marmoush's goal restored the lead
Spurs found the answer in the 58th minute. Omar Marmoush's goal, created by Andy Robertson, was worth +1.0 FN xPts to Tottenham and cost Coventry −0.8, wiping out the gain their equaliser had given them. Maddison, Marmoush and Robertson were all new in the starting line-up flagged before kick-off, and each had a hand in a goal.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
James Maddison 8.0Dominant
He scored in the 14th minute and completed 49 of 56 passes in 69 minutes.
Most of Maddison's value came from attack, but he contributed in possession too: he won all four of his duels, drew four fouls and made one key pass. His 14th-minute goal gave Tottenham the first lead of the match, and his passing kept Spurs moving until he was replaced after 69 minutes.
Game state
1-01-12-13-1
Tottenham ahead 67 min · level 23 min · Coventry ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
14'
James Maddison
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Mohammed Kudus +0.2 · COV −0.6
+0.7
49'
Jack Rudoni
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Brandon Thomas-Asante +0.2 · TOT −0.9
+0.7
58'
Omar Marmoush
Goal · scorer +0.7 · assist Andy Robertson +0.3 · COV −0.8
+1.0
90+6'
Ben Davies
Goal · assist Dominic Solanke · COV 0.0
0.0
Tottenham
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +1.7Opponent moments −0.9Time effect +0.6→ League points won 3
Coventry
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −1.4Time effect −0.4→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
TottenhamCoventry
0.89Expected goals (xG)0.8
Compared with usual
Tottenham
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 0.89 | 1.3 | |
| xG against | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 16 | 15 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.9 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 13.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 66% | 59.5% | |
| Passes | 560 | 535.5 | |
| Corners | 4 | 7.8 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 12.3 | |
Coventry
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | |
| xG | 0.8 | 1.1 | |
| xG against | 0.89 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 12 | 10.9 | |
| On target | 1 | 4 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 16.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 34% | 42.1% | |
| Passes | 287 | 360.4 | |
| Corners | 4 | 3.4 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 11.6 | |
Timeline
- 14'
Goal
James Maddison league goal #1 assist Mohammed Kudus
- 20'
Yellow
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi
- 22'
Yellow
Dominic Solanke
- 45'
Yellow
Jay Dasilva
- 49'
Goal
Jack Rudoni league goal #2 assist Brandon Thomas-Asante
- 58'
Goal
Omar Marmoush league goal #1 assist Andy Robertson
- 60'
Sub
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi → Frank Onyeka
- 60'
Sub
Sidiki Cherif → Taiwo Awoniyi
- 64'
Yellow
Jack Rudoni
- 69'
Sub
James Maddison → Conor Gallagher
- 69'
Sub
Andy Robertson → Ben Davies
- 71'
Sub
Tosin Adarabioyo → Mateus Fernandes
- 78'
Sub
Tatsuhiro Sakamoto → Gustavo Hamer
- 78'
Sub
Brandon Thomas-Asante → Ephron Mason-Clark
- 87'
Sub
Omar Marmoush → Mathys Tel
- 87'
Sub
Mohammed Kudus → Dejan Kulusevski
- 87'
Sub
Jack Rudoni → Kaine Kesler-Hayden
- 90+6'
Goal
Ben Davies league goal #1 assist Dominic Solanke
Category leaders
- Key passesMilan van Ewijk3
- Duels wonJan Paul van Hecke10/15
- DribblesMohammed Kudus2/3
- Defensive actionsBrandon Thomas-Asante6
- ShotsTaiwo Awoniyi3 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonBrandon Thomas-Asante4
#Tottenham#Coventry#Premier League#James Maddison#Omar Marmoush#Jack Rudoni
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.