Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig: Güler finds the target every time
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 11 shots on target, a season high for Madrid (equalled)
- Leipzig's 11 shots: their lowest this season
- Madrid beat their 2.95 xG by 1.05 goals
A three-goal cushion that held
Real Madrid beat RB Leipzig 4-1 after Bernardo Silva broke the deadlock late in the first half. Arda Güler added a second early in the second half, and Madrid then protected a lead that eventually stretched to three goals before Leipzig pulled one back.
Leipzig's lowest output of the season
Leipzig took 11 shots, their fewest in nine matches this season, and held just 35% of the ball, also their lowest. Their shot quality per attempt was in line with normal, so the problem looks like sheer volume rather than poor chances.
Madrid's changes worked in midfield
Madrid completed 738 passes, more than in any other match this season. Eduardo Camavinga, one of the new starters, won 14 of 19 duels, while Bernardo Silva scored the opener. The reshuffled line-up appears to have tilted the midfield their way.
The opener tilted the balance
Bernardo Silva's goal in the 43rd minute was worth +0.7 FN xPts to Madrid, while Leipzig's FN xPts fell by −0.5, the largest combined shift of the match. The three goals from the 83rd minute onwards came with the margin already at three, so they barely moved FN xPts.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Arda Güler 8.5Dominant
FN MOM after scoring in the 52nd minute and winning all three dribbles, with two key passes.
Güler put all three of his shots on target and completed 54 of 58 passes, so he contributed to build-up as well as the final third. His goal came nine minutes after Bernardo Silva's opener and gave Madrid a two-goal buffer. He was withdrawn after 78 minutes with his side comfortably ahead.
Game state
1-02-03-03-14-1
Real Madrid ahead 47 min · level 43 min · RB Leipzig ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
43'
Bernardo Silva
Goal · RBL −0.5
+0.7
52'
Arda Güler
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Kylian Mbappé +0.1 · RBL −0.2
+0.3
83'
Kylian Mbappé
Goal · assist Yan Diomande · RBL 0.0
0.0
85'
Tidiam Gomis
Goal · assist Christoph Baumgartner · RMA 0.0
0.0
87'
Yan Diomande
Goal · assist Brahim Díaz · RBL 0.0
0.0
Real Madrid
Expected (last two seasons) 2.3Own moments +1.0Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.3→ League points won 3
RB Leipzig
Expected (last two seasons) 0.5Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −0.7Time effect +0.2→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Real MadridRB Leipzig
2.95Expected goals (xG)1.46
Compared with usual
Real Madrid
11 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2.6 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 2.95 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 1.46 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 18 | 17.3 | |
| On target | 11 | 7.4 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 13.6 | |
| xG per shot | 0.16 | 0.13 | |
| Possession | 65% | 50.9% | |
| Passes | 738 | 505.9 | high |
| Corners | 7 | 6.5 | |
| Fouls | 13 | 8.8 | |
RB Leipzig
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2.7 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.46 | 2.2 | |
| xG against | 2.95 | 1.7 | |
| Shots | 11 | 18.7 | low |
| On target | 6 | 6.8 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 14.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 35% | 53.4% | low |
| Passes | 400 | 503.3 | |
| Corners | 1 | 6.1 | low |
| Fouls | 12 | 10.1 | |
Timeline
- 43'
Goal
Bernardo Silva competition goal #1
- 52'
Goal
Arda Güler competition goal #1 assist Kylian Mbappé
- 63'
Sub
Neil El Aynaoui → Rocco Reitz
- 63'
Sub
Brajan Gruda → Andrija Maksimović
- 68'
Yellow
Álvaro Fernández
- 70'
Yellow
Rocco Reitz
- 70'
Sub
Vinícius Júnior → Yan Diomande
- 70'
Sub
Álvaro Fernández → Marc Cucurella
- 73'
Sub
David Raum → Max Finkgräfe
- 73'
Sub
Antonio Nusa → Tidiam Gomis
- 78'
Sub
Christopher Nkunku → Christoph Baumgartner
- 78'
Sub
Arda Güler → Brahim Díaz
- 83'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé competition goal #3 assist Yan Diomande
- 85'
Goal
Tidiam Gomis competition goal #1 assist Christoph Baumgartner
- 87'
Goal
Yan Diomande competition goal #1 assist Brahim Díaz
- 88'
Sub
Kylian Mbappé → Carlos Espí
- 88'
Sub
Jude Bellingham → Endrick
Category leaders
- Key passesJude Bellingham3
- Duels wonEduardo Camavinga14/19
- DribblesArda Güler3/3
- Defensive actionsDean Huijsen7
- ShotsKylian Mbappé4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonBrajan Gruda5
#Real Madrid#RB Leipzig#Champions League#Arda Güler#Kylian Mbappé#Bernardo Silva
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.