Ipswich 1-1 Forest: Enciso punishes wasteful visitors
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 0.49 v 2.33: the better chances were Forest's
- Ipswich: 7 shots and 0 corners, both season lows
- Enciso: 6 of 6 dribbles, 4 shots, 1 goal
Forest lead early, Ipswich level before the break
Nottingham Forest went ahead in the 13th minute when Neco Williams finished from Daniel Muñoz's assist. Ipswich hit back before half-time, with Julio Enciso scoring in the 41st minute. That was the last goal of the afternoon, and the second half passed without another.
Forest found good areas but not the finish
The expected goals figures read 2.33 for Forest and 0.49 for Ipswich. Fifteen of Forest's 17 shots came inside the box, and their xG per shot of 0.14 was above their 0.1 average across eight matches this season. Even so, only five shots were on target, and they finished 1.33 below their xG. Ipswich goalkeeper Christian Walton made three saves.
Ipswich had the ball but little to show for it
Ipswich kept 49% of possession, above their 43% average across nine matches this season, and their 472 passes were a season high. Yet seven shots and no corners were both season lows for Ipswich. Exequiel Palacios completed 77 of his 86 passes, but the ball rarely reached dangerous areas. New starters Abdul Fatawu Issahaku and Jaden Philogene-Bidace were replaced in the 73rd and 61st minutes.
Enciso's goal reset the afternoon
Enciso's equaliser was worth +0.5 FN xPts to Ipswich, while Forest's FN xPts fell by 0.7, the largest combined change of the match. Forest had led for about 28 minutes and never regained the advantage. Before kick-off their FN xPts stood at 2.1 against Ipswich's 0.7, so a point suited the hosts far better.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Julio Enciso 7.8Strong
He scored his first league goal of the season and won all six of his dribbles.
Four of Ipswich's seven shots came from Enciso, and he won eight of 13 duels, so most of his value came in attack. On an afternoon when Ipswich's shots and corners dropped to season lows, his 41st-minute goal was the only time they scored, and it erased Forest's lead before the break.
Game state
0-11-1
Ipswich ahead 0 min · level 62 min · Nottingham Forest ahead 28 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
13'
Neco Williams
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Daniel Muñoz +0.2 · IPS −0.4
+0.5
41'
Julio Enciso
Goal · NFO −0.7
+0.5
Ipswich
Expected (last two seasons) 0.7Own moments +0.5Opponent moments −0.4Time effect +0.2→ League points won 1
Nottingham Forest
Expected (last two seasons) 2.1Own moments +0.5Opponent moments −0.7Time effect −0.9→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
IpswichNottingham Forest
0.49Expected goals (xG)2.33
Compared with usual
Ipswich
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.8 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2.2 | |
| xG | 0.49 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 2.33 | 2 | |
| Shots | 7 | 11.1 | low |
| On target | 3 | 4.8 | |
| Shots faced | 17 | 16.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.15 | |
| Possession | 49% | 43% | |
| Passes | 472 | 396.6 | |
| Corners | 0 | 3.4 | low |
| Fouls | 9 | 11.6 | |
Nottingham Forest
8 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.63 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 2.33 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 0.49 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 17 | 16 | |
| On target | 5 | 3.5 | |
| Shots faced | 7 | 10.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.14 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 51% | 46.1% | |
| Passes | 467 | 380.4 | |
| Corners | 5 | 4.5 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 14.3 | |
Timeline
- 13'
Goal
Neco Williams league goal #1 assist Daniel Muñoz
- 41'
Goal
Julio Enciso league goal #1
- 49'
VAR
Issa Diop
- 51'
Yellow
Issa Diop
- 54'
Yellow
Murillo
- 60'
Sub
Emersonn → Zian Flemming
- 61'
Sub
Jaden Philogene-Bidace → Jack Clarke
- 69'
Sub
Dan Ndoye → Callum Hudson Odoi
- 73'
Sub
Abdul Fatawu Issahaku → Daizen Maeda
- 84'
Sub
Neco Williams → Luca Netz
- 85'
Sub
Florentino → Azor Matusiwa
- 86'
Sub
Julio Enciso → Chuba Akpom
- 90+4'
Sub
Liam Delap → Chris Wood
Category leaders
- Key passesMorgan Gibbs-White3
- Duels wonJames McAtee13/19
- DribblesJulio Enciso6/6
- Defensive actionsJames McAtee8
- ShotsJulio Enciso4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonJames McAtee5
#Ipswich#Nottingham Forest#Premier League#Julio Enciso#Neco Williams#Matchweek 8
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.