Paderborn 1-0 Hamburg: Philippe breaks the deadlock late on
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 6 shots on target, but 5 saves by Fernandes
- 88': Götze assist, Philippe goal
- Hamburg: 1 shot on target vs season average of 4
Deadlock held until the 88th minute
Paderborn won at home, though the result arrived late. The match stayed goalless until the 88th minute, which meant the hosts were in front for about two minutes of the 90. It was a tight, low-scoring contest in which the lone goal came from the bench, and it proved enough for the points.
Paderborn had the ball, Hamburg had little
Paderborn's 62% possession was well above their average across the seven matches they have played this season, and it came with a defensive benefit: Hamburg managed only one shot on target. That points to a side whose control of the ball also cut off the visitors' route to Nahuel Noll's goal.
Fernandes kept Paderborn out for 88 minutes
Paderborn had enough shots to win more clearly. They put six on target, yet Daniel Heuer Fernandes made five saves, and their xG of 1.21 was an edge rather than dominance. The finishing was the missing piece until late on, which is why a single goal ended up deciding the afternoon.
Two substitutes combine for the winner
Felix Götze and Rayan Philippe, both introduced from the bench, combined in the 88th minute: Götze provided the assist and Philippe the finish, his first Bundesliga goal of the season. The goal was worth +1.7 FN xPts to Paderborn, while Hamburg's FN xPts dropped by 1.0. It was the only goal of the match, and so the winner.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Santiago Castaneda 8.2Dominant
His ten defensive actions, including seven interceptions, were the most of any player in the match.
Castaneda's FN MOM display was built on his work without the ball: seven interceptions, two blocks and a tackle, plus 10 of 14 duels won. He also had four shots, two on target, so he was no pure destroyer. With Paderborn conceding nothing, the hosts stayed level until the 88th minute, when their substitutes could settle it.
Game state
1-0
SC Paderborn 07 ahead 2 min · level 88 min · Hamburger SV ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
88'
Rayan Philippe
Goal · scorer +1.2 · assist Felix Götze +0.5 · HSV −1.0
+1.7
SC Paderborn 07
Expected (last two seasons) 1.6Own moments +1.7Opponent moments 0.0Time effect −0.3→ League points won 3
Hamburger SV
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV
1.21Expected goals (xG)0.49
Compared with usual
SC Paderborn 07
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 1.21 | 0.93 | |
| xG against | 0.49 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 16 | 15 | |
| On target | 6 | 3.9 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 17.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.07 | |
| Possession | 62% | 48.6% | |
| Passes | 532 | 458 | |
| Corners | 6 | 5 | |
| Fouls | 12 | 10.4 | |
Hamburger SV
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 1.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 2.1 | |
| xG | 0.49 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.21 | 1.8 | |
| Shots | 9 | 10.9 | |
| On target | 1 | 4 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 18.3 | |
| xG per shot | 0.05 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 38% | 40% | |
| Passes | 333 | 358.7 | |
| Corners | 3 | 3.4 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 13.7 | |
Timeline
- 13'
Sub
Fábio Vieira → Otto Emerson Stange
- 45'
Sub
Gabriel Vidović → Tom Baack
- 45'
Sub
Yussuf Poulsen → Terem Moffi
- 53'
Yellow
Shafiq Nandja
- 58'
Yellow
Jano ter Horst
- 62'
Sub
Steffen Tigges → Marvin Pieringer
- 62'
Sub
Jano ter Horst → Felix Götze
- 70'
Sub
Laurin Ulrich → Rayan Philippe
- 71'
Sub
Miro Muheim → Albert Sambi Lokonga
- 71'
Sub
Bilal Nadir → Albert Grønbæk
- 79'
Sub
Stefano Marino → Sven Michel
- 87'
Yellow
Albert Sambi Lokonga
- 88'
Goal
Rayan Philippe league goal #1 assist Felix Götze
- 89'
Yellow
Merlin Polzin (coaching staff)
- 89'
Sub
Otto Emerson Stange → Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
Category leaders
- Key passesRaphael Obermair3
- Duels wonOtto Emerson Stange12/20
- DribblesZakaria El Ouahdi2/3
- Defensive actionsSantiago Castaneda10
- ShotsSantiago Castaneda4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonOtto Emerson Stange8
#Paderborn#Hamburger SV#Bundesliga#Rayan Philippe#Santiago Castaneda#Felix Götze
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.