Brest 1-2 Nice: Diop's late goal and six saves flip the match
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.72 vs 0.53: Brest made the better chances
- Yehvann Diouf made 6 saves, conceding once
- 83': Diop's winner was worth +1.4 FN xPts to Nice
Nice win from behind despite fewer shots
Brest were ahead for 46 minutes after Ludovic Ajorque scored in the 15th minute, but Nice turned it round through Elye Wahi in the 61st and Sofiane Diop in the 83rd. Nice had nine shots to Brest's 13, with just two on target. Both of those found the net.
Brest created more, Diouf denied them
Brest's xG of 1.72 against Nice's 0.53 shows who made the better chances, and seven of their shots were on target. Only Ajorque's goal beat Yehvann Diouf, who made six saves in the Nice goal. At the other end, Nice outperformed their xG by 1.47, while Brest's keeper finished without a save.
Nice won with less of the ball than usual
Nice had 49% possession, below their average of 54.4% across seven matches this season. That is a small sample, so it is not proof of a new approach, but they were efficient with little. Two goals matched their highest tally in those seven fixtures.
Diop's winner came before Lala's miss
Diop, introduced in the 63rd minute, scored the 83rd-minute winner from Wahi's pass. It was worth +1.4 FN xPts to Nice and cost Brest −1.0, the largest combined change of the match. VAR confirmed a penalty in the seventh minute of stoppage time, but Kenny Lala's kick in the tenth was recorded as missed. That cost Brest a further −0.8 FN xPts.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Elye Wahi 7.8Strong
He scored once, assisted once and won four of his ten duels.
Wahi was involved in both Nice goals. He had only one shot, but it was the 61st-minute equaliser, and his key pass in the 83rd minute set up Diop's winner. It was his third league goal of the season, and his two contributions pulled Nice from a goal down to a win.
Game state
1-01-11-2
Stade Brestois 29 ahead 46 min · level 37 min · Nice ahead 7 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
15'
Ludovic Ajorque
Goal · NIC −0.5
+0.6
61'
Elye Wahi
Goal · scorer +0.5 · assist Mohamed El Amine Amoura +0.2 · SB29 −0.9
+0.7
83'
Sofiane Diop
Goal · scorer +1.0 · assist Elye Wahi +0.4 · SB29 −1.0
+1.4
90+10'
Kenny Lala
Pen miss · NIC +1.5
−0.8
Stade Brestois 29
Expected (last two seasons) 1.8Own moments −0.2Opponent moments −1.9Time effect +0.3→ League points won 0
Nice
Expected (last two seasons) 1.0Own moments +2.1Opponent moments +1.0Time effect −1.1→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Stade Brestois 29Nice
1.72Expected goals (xG)0.53
Compared with usual
Stade Brestois 29
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.4 | |
| xG | 1.72 | 2 | |
| xG against | 0.53 | 1.3 | |
| Shots | 13 | 17.6 | |
| On target | 7 | 5.9 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 12 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 51% | 45.9% | |
| Passes | 462 | 409.3 | |
| Corners | 3 | 4.9 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 14.4 | |
Nice
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 0.53 | 1.2 | |
| xG against | 1.72 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 9 | 11.9 | |
| On target | 2 | 3.7 | |
| Shots faced | 13 | 12 | |
| xG per shot | 0.06 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 49% | 54.4% | |
| Passes | 450 | 557.9 | |
| Corners | 7 | 5.7 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 9.4 | |
Timeline
- 15'
Goal
Ludovic Ajorque league goal #3
- 54'
Sub
Jonathan Clauss → Hamza Koutoune
- 58'
Yellow
Hamza Koutoune
- 61'
Goal
Elye Wahi league goal #3 assist Mohamed El Amine Amoura
- 62'
Yellow
Kamory Doumbia
- 63'
Sub
Gauthier Hein → Sofiane Diop
- 64'
Yellow
Ludovic Ajorque
- 68'
Yellow
Elye Wahi
- 70'
Sub
Mama Baldé → Joseph Nonge Boende
- 70'
Sub
Pathé Mboup → Noah Edjouma
- 71'
Yellow
Bradley Locko
- 76'
Sub
Mohamed El Amine Amoura → Isak Jansson
- 76'
Sub
Axel Witsel → Djibril Coulibaly
- 80'
Sub
Joris Chotard → Mamady Diambou
- 80'
Sub
Kamory Doumbia → Ibrahim Yayiya Kante
- 83'
Goal
Sofiane Diop league goal #1 assist Elye Wahi
- 85'
Yellow
Yehvann Diouf
- 87'
Sub
Hugo Magnetti → L. C. Laine M.
- 90'
Yellow
Niels Nkounkou
- 90+1'
Yellow
Olivier Pantaloni (coaching staff)
- 90+7'
VAR
Ibrahim Yayiya Kante
- 90+8'
Yellow
Isak Jansson
- 90+10'
Pen miss
Kenny Lala
Category leaders
- Key passesJoris Chotard2
- Duels wonLudovic Ajorque11/15
- DribblesHicham Boudaoui2/4
- Defensive actionsNiels Nkounkou6
- ShotsMohamed El Amine Amoura4 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonKenny Lala3
#Brest#Nice#Ligue 1#Elye Wahi#Sofiane Diop#Ludovic Ajorque
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.