Stuttgart 2-3 Mönchengladbach: quality over possession
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Possession 30% vs a 52.6% seven-match average
- xG per shot 0.17 vs 0.11: better chances for Gladbach
- xG 2.66 vs 1.62 in favour of the visitors
A comeback built on 30% of the ball
Mönchengladbach fell behind early, levelled before the break and then pulled clear with two goals either side of the hour. Stuttgart had the ball for longer. Yet Gladbach won with just 30% possession, well below their average of 52.6% across seven matches this season.
Shot quality, not shot volume
The shot counts were close, but the visitors averaged 0.17 xG per shot, a clear step up on their seven-match average of 0.08. Stuttgart's figure sat level with their own season average. Their chances were no better for all the territory they enjoyed, and that gap told over the 90 minutes.
Machino's goal moved the match most
Shuto Machino's goal, set up by Wael Mohya, was worth +0.9 FN xPts to Gladbach, while Stuttgart's FN xPts fell by 0.9. It was the largest combined shift of the match, and it put the visitors in front for the first time. Joseph Scally, who had equalised, later supplied the pass for Mohya's goal.
Two Demirović goals, but three conceded
Ermedin Demirović's brace, the second from substitute Jamie Leweling's pass, took him to three league goals this season, and Chris Führich was the match's top creator. But three goals conceded was well above Stuttgart's season average of 1.2 per match, and the reply came too late to change the outcome.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Wael Mohya 8.7Dominant
A goal and an assist in 70 minutes, with four shots, two of them on target.
Mohya's value came almost entirely in attack. He won three of his four dribbles and created two chances for team-mates. His pass for Shuto Machino in the 51st minute put Gladbach in front for the first time, and his own goal in the 66th minute stretched the lead to two. Both arrived before he was replaced in the 70th minute.
Game state
1-01-11-21-32-3
VfB Stuttgart ahead 33 min · level 18 min · Borussia Mönchengladbach ahead 39 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
5'
Ermedin Demirović
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Dženan Pejčinović +0.2 · BMG −0.5
+0.5
38'
Joseph Scally
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Z. Uno +0.2 · VFB −0.7
+0.6
51'
Shuto Machino
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Wael Mohya +0.3 · VFB −0.9
+0.9
66'
Wael Mohya
Goal · scorer +0.4 · assist Joseph Scally +0.2 · VFB −0.4
+0.6
83'
Ermedin Demirović
Goal · assist Jamie Leweling · BMG −0.4
+0.2
VfB Stuttgart
Expected (last two seasons) 1.9Own moments +0.7Opponent moments −2.0Time effect −0.6→ League points won 0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Expected (last two seasons) 0.8Own moments +2.1Opponent moments −0.9Time effect +1.0→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.62Expected goals (xG)2.66
Compared with usual
VfB Stuttgart
10 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 1.62 | 1.9 | |
| xG against | 2.66 | 2 | |
| Shots | 15 | 17.5 | |
| On target | 5 | 5.9 | |
| Shots faced | 16 | 15.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.11 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 70% | 58.2% | |
| Passes | 693 | 556.9 | |
| Corners | 6 | 6.9 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 10.7 | |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 1.9 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2.9 | |
| xG | 2.66 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.62 | 2.5 | |
| Shots | 16 | 17.3 | |
| On target | 6 | 5.7 | |
| Shots faced | 15 | 16.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.17 | 0.08 | |
| Possession | 30% | 52.6% | |
| Passes | 289 | 455.1 | |
| Corners | 5 | 6.3 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 14.3 | |
Timeline
- 5'
Goal
Ermedin Demirović league goal #2 assist Dženan Pejčinović
- 38'
Goal
Joseph Scally league goal #3 assist Z. Uno
- 44'
Yellow
Leo Sauer
- 45'
Yellow
Atakan Karazor
- 45+3'
Yellow
Florian Neuhaus
- 51'
Goal
Shuto Machino league goal #2 assist Wael Mohya
- 53'
Yellow
Z. Uno
- 54'
Yellow
Joseph Scally
- 55'
Sub
Dženan Pejčinović → Deniz Undav
- 55'
Sub
Leo Sauer → Jamie Leweling
- 55'
Sub
Lorenz Assignon → Bilal El Khannouss
- 64'
Sub
Atakan Karazor → Grischa Prömel
- 66'
Goal
Wael Mohya league goal #2 assist Joseph Scally
- 70'
Sub
Joseph Scally → Yukhym Konoplia
- 70'
Sub
Wael Mohya → Robin Hack
- 76'
Sub
Fabio Chiarodia → David Herold
- 79'
Yellow
Lukas Ullrich
- 83'
Goal
Ermedin Demirović league goal #3 assist Jamie Leweling
- 84'
Sub
Shuto Machino → Lion Schweers
- 84'
Sub
Hugo Bolin → Mathieu Nguefack
- 90'
Sub
Finn Jeltsch → Jeff Chabot
Category leaders
- Key passesChris Führich6
- Duels wonMaximilian Mittelstädt11/13
- DribblesWael Mohya3/4
- Defensive actionsPhilipp Sander6
- ShotsErmedin Demirović4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonMaximilian Mittelstädt4
#Bundesliga#VfB Stuttgart#Borussia Mönchengladbach#Wael Mohya#Ermedin Demirović
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.