Hoffenheim 3-0 Leverkusen: Kramarić ends stalemate from the bench
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 3.34 v 0.68: Hoffenheim's shots were worth more
- 79': Kramarić's penalty, worth +1.3 FN xPts
- Leverkusen: one shot on target, a season low
Hoffenheim waited, then struck three times
Hoffenheim won 3-0, yet they led for only about 11 minutes. The first half ended goalless and the deadlock lasted until the 79th minute, after which the goals came in a rush. Leverkusen's return of no goals was their lowest of the season.
Less of the ball, better shots
Leverkusen had the larger share of the ball, but Hoffenheim's xG of 3.34 was the highest of their ten matches this season. Their xG per shot, 0.17, was also a season best, so the home side's efforts carried more weight even with less possession. The better chances were theirs.
A quiet night for Leverkusen's attack
Leverkusen made six changes to their starting line-up and managed nine shots, only one of them on target, against a season average of 20.9. One shot on target was the lowest of their ten matches. The data cannot say whether the changes explain it; it shows a side that kept the ball without finding a way through.
A substitute's penalty opened the door
Kramarić, on the bench before kick-off, came on and scored a penalty in the 79th minute: a penalty off the bench. It was worth +1.3 FN xPts to Hoffenheim and −1.0 to Leverkusen, the largest combined change of the match. Alexander Prass doubled the lead, and Max Moerstedt added the third after Prass had been sent off.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Ozan Kabak 7.7Strong
Eight defensive actions (three tackles, four interceptions, one block) and seven of 16 duels won in a clean-sheet win.
Kabak is Hoffenheim's FN MOM, and his case rests on defending. He made more defensive actions than anyone on the pitch, won seven of 16 duels and also had three shots himself. With the match goalless until the 79th minute, the clean sheet was still intact when the goals came, and Leverkusen finished with a single shot on target.
Game state
1-02-03-0
1899 Hoffenheim ahead 11 min · level 79 min · Bayer Leverkusen ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
79'
Andrej Kramarić
Pen goal · B04 −1.0
+1.3
89'
Alexander Prass
Goal · scorer +0.2 · assist Andrej Kramarić +0.1 · B04 −0.1
+0.3
90+1'
Alexander Prass
Red card · B04 0.0
0.0
90+5'
Max Moerstedt
Goal · B04 0.0
0.0
1899 Hoffenheim
Expected (last two seasons) 1.1Own moments +1.6Opponent moments 0.0Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Bayer Leverkusen
Expected (last two seasons) 1.7Own moments 0.0Opponent moments −1.1Time effect −0.6→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
1899 HoffenheimBayer Leverkusen
3.34Expected goals (xG)0.68
Compared with usual
1899 Hoffenheim
10 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 | |
| Conceded | 0 | 1.9 | |
| xG | 3.34 | 1.7 | high |
| xG against | 0.68 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 20 | 19 | |
| On target | 6 | 6 | |
| Shots faced | 9 | 12.2 | |
| xG per shot | 0.17 | 0.1 | high |
| Possession | 42% | 57.2% | low |
| Passes | 355 | 501.2 | low |
| Corners | 5 | 8.1 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 14.7 | |
Bayer Leverkusen
10 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 0 | 2.8 | low |
| Conceded | 3 | 0.9 | |
| xG | 0.68 | 2.6 | low |
| xG against | 3.34 | 1.1 | high |
| Shots | 9 | 20.9 | low |
| On target | 1 | 7.8 | low |
| Shots faced | 20 | 9.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.13 | low |
| Possession | 58% | 59.8% | |
| Passes | 507 | 578.3 | |
| Corners | 3 | 6.8 | |
| Fouls | 6 | 13.9 | low |
Timeline
- 40'
Yellow
Ezequiel Fernández
- 41'
Sub
Moussa Diaby → Malik Tillman
- 45'
Yellow
Alexander Prass
- 58'
Yellow
Patrik Schick
- 64'
Sub
Ezequiel Fernández → Robert Andrich
- 64'
Sub
Nathan Tella → Afonso Moreira
- 64'
Sub
Jarell Quansah → Loïc Badé
- 65'
Sub
Adam Hložek → Andrej Kramarić
- 67'
Yellow
Leon Avdullahu
- 72'
Sub
Wouter Burger → Bambasé Conté
- 75'
Yellow
Facundo Medina
- 77'
VAR
Fisnik Asllani
- 79'
Goal
Andrej Kramarić (pen) league goal #1
- 82'
Yellow
Adam Daghim
- 84'
Sub
Fisnik Asllani → Robin Hranáč
- 84'
Sub
Adam Daghim → Max Moerstedt
- 84'
Sub
Facundo Medina → Jonas Hofmann
- 89'
Goal
Alexander Prass league goal #2 assist Andrej Kramarić
- 90'
Yellow
Carles Martínez Novell (coaching staff)
- 90+1'
Red
Alexander Prass
- 90+3'
Yellow
Loïc Badé
- 90+5'
Goal
Max Moerstedt league goal #1
Category leaders
- Key passesMats Rots2
- Duels wonIbrahim Maza7/14
- DribblesMoussa Diaby2/2
- Defensive actionsOzan Kabak8
- ShotsAlexander Prass4 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonIbrahim Maza4
#Hoffenheim#Leverkusen#Bundesliga#Andrej Kramarić#Ozan Kabak#Matchweek 7
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.