Hull City 1-1 Brentford: near-identical xG, one goal each
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- Hull xG 1.92: highest in nine matches this season
- Shots on target: Hull 2, Brentford 6
- 63' equaliser: Hull −1.2 FN xPts, Brentford +0.9
A penalty lead, then an equaliser
Hull City went ahead from the penalty spot through Oli McBurnie in the 24th minute and kept hold of that lead for about 39 minutes. Dango Ouattara then levelled for Brentford in the 63rd minute, set up by Thiago, and neither side could find a winner.
Hull's xG high came with two shots on target
Hull's 1.92 xG was their highest in nine matches this season, and well above their average. Only two of their shots tested the goalkeeper, though, so the chances were created more readily than they were converted. That suggests Hull were good at reaching shooting positions but short of accuracy once there.
Brentford pressed, Tzolakis answered
Brentford had more of the ball than they usually do this season and put six shots on target, but five saves by Tzolakis limited them to a single goal. Michael Kayode led all players for key passes, and Mamadou Sangare, one of the changes in the starting XI, added four tackles in midfield.
The equaliser hurt Hull more
Ouattara's 63rd-minute goal was worth +0.9 FN xPts to Brentford, while Hull's FN xPts fell by 1.2, the largest combined change of any moment in the match. The goal cost the side that had led more than it gave the side that scored it, and Hull could not rebuild their advantage.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Dango Ouattara 7.7Strong
He scored the equaliser and added four shots and three key passes in 78 minutes.
FN MOM Dango Ouattara earned most of his credit going forward: two of his four shots were on target and he created three chances for team-mates. His goal in the 63rd minute ended a spell of about 39 minutes in which Brentford trailed, and it was his first in the Premier League this season. He was replaced by Callum Wilson in the 78th minute.
Game state
1-01-1
Hull City ahead 39 min · level 51 min · Brentford ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
24'
Oli McBurnie
Pen goal · BRE −0.7
+0.8
63'
Dango Ouattara
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Thiago +0.3 · HUL −1.2
+0.9
Hull City
Expected (last two seasons) 1.2Own moments +0.8Opponent moments −1.2Time effect +0.2→ League points won 1
Brentford
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +0.9Opponent moments −0.7Time effect −0.7→ League points won 1
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
Hull CityBrentford
1.92Expected goals (xG)1.87
Compared with usual
Hull City
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| xG | 1.92 | 1.1 | high |
| xG against | 1.87 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 12 | 11.1 | |
| On target | 2 | 3.4 | |
| Shots faced | 14 | 13.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.16 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 43% | 35.7% | |
| Passes | 327 | 321 | |
| Corners | 5 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 10 | 11 | |
Brentford
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 2.3 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.1 | |
| xG | 1.87 | 1.8 | |
| xG against | 1.92 | 1.3 | high |
| Shots | 14 | 16.3 | |
| On target | 6 | 5 | |
| Shots faced | 12 | 14.8 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.11 | |
| Possession | 57% | 48.4% | |
| Passes | 444 | 415.4 | |
| Corners | 6 | 4.4 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 14 | |
Timeline
- 23'
Yellow
Aaron Hickey
- 24'
Goal
Oli McBurnie (pen) league goal #1
- 62'
Sub
Kevin Schade → Jaidon Anthony
- 62'
Sub
Aaron Hickey → Mikkel Damsgaard
- 63'
Goal
Dango Ouattara league goal #1 assist Thiago
- 65'
Sub
Lewie Coyle → Brooke Norton-Cuffy
- 65'
Sub
Ryan Giles → Mohamed-Ali Cho
- 72'
Sub
Tim Iroegbunam → Hidemasa Morita
- 78'
Sub
Dango Ouattara → Callum Wilson
- 78'
Sub
Keane Lewis-Potter → El Hadji Malick Diouf
- 86'
Sub
Oli McBurnie → Robinio Vaz
- 86'
Sub
Mohamed Belloumi → Joe Gelhardt
Category leaders
- Key passesMichael Kayode4
- Duels wonMohamed Belloumi13/22
- DribblesMohamed Belloumi7/8
- Defensive actionsSemi Ajayi8
- ShotsDango Ouattara4 (on target 2)
- Fouls wonMathias Jensen3
#Hull City#Brentford#Premier League#Dango Ouattara#Oli McBurnie#Matchweek 8
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.