Valencia 1-2 Villarreal: late Mikautadze goal completes comeback
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 3 of 19 shots on target, lowest in 12 matches
- Valencia: 18 fouls, a season high in nine
- 90+6': Mikautadze winner, +2.0 FN xPts
Villarreal win it with both sides reduced
Villarreal won at Mestalla after trailing to Pepelu's first-half penalty. Alexander Freeman levelled in the 69th minute, and Georges Mikautadze delivered a late winner in stoppage time. Pape Gueye and Harvey Elliott were both sent off before the end, so the decisive goal arrived with each side down to ten.
Plenty of shots, little accuracy
Villarreal had the ball and the volume, but little of it truly tested Valencia. Only three on target came from their 19 shots. That was the fewest across 12 matches this season. Their xG per shot was also lower than Valencia's, which suggests quantity rather than quality.
Valencia's foul count hit a season high
Valencia committed 18 fouls, more than in any of their nine matches this season. They spent much of the afternoon breaking up play without the ball. Their five shots on target nonetheless matched their best this season, and Péter Gulácsi saved everything bar the penalty.
Substitutes were involved in both goals
Sergi Cardona, a 65th-minute substitute, set up Freeman's equaliser. The winner came from another replacement, Alberto Moleiro, who laid it on for Mikautadze, also off the bench. It was worth +2.0 FN xPts to Villarreal, while Valencia's FN xPts fell by 1.0. Combined, that was the largest change of the match.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Alexander Freeman 8.5Dominant
The defender scored the 69th-minute equaliser and added two key passes and two successful dribbles over 90 minutes.
Most of Freeman's FN Score came from attacking work: one shot, on target, which became a goal, plus two key passes. He also won seven of 16 duels, a heavy workload for a defender. His first league goal of the season ended Valencia's spell in front and kept Villarreal within range of the late winner.
Game state
1-01-11-2
Valencia ahead 31 min · level 59 min · Villarreal ahead 0 min
- Villarreal: Red card 79' → ~11 min a player down
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
38'
Pepelu
Pen goal · VIL −0.8
+0.9
69'
Alexander Freeman
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Sergi Cardona +0.3 · VAL −1.2
+0.9
79'
Pape Gueye
Red card · VAL +0.2
−0.2
89'
Harvey Elliott
Red card · VIL +0.1
−0.1
90+6'
Georges Mikautadze
Goal · scorer +1.4 · assist Alberto Moleiro +0.6 · VAL −1.0
+2.0
Valencia
Expected (last two seasons) 1.3Own moments +0.8Opponent moments −2.0Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Villarreal
Expected (last two seasons) 1.5Own moments +2.7Opponent moments −0.7Time effect −0.5→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
ValenciaVillarreal
1.17Expected goals (xG)1.52
Compared with usual
Valencia
9 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.7 | |
| xG | 1.17 | 1 | |
| xG against | 1.52 | 1.5 | |
| Shots | 9 | 11.1 | |
| On target | 5 | 2.7 | |
| Shots faced | 19 | 15.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.13 | 0.1 | |
| Possession | 38% | 46.2% | |
| Passes | 332 | 422.4 | |
| Corners | 6 | 4 | |
| Fouls | 18 | 10.9 | high |
Villarreal
12 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1.8 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.8 | |
| xG | 1.52 | 2 | |
| xG against | 1.17 | 1.4 | |
| Shots | 19 | 15.8 | |
| On target | 3 | 6 | low |
| Shots faced | 9 | 13.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.08 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 62% | 57.6% | |
| Passes | 539 | 549 | |
| Corners | 9 | 6.4 | |
| Fouls | 9 | 10.6 | |
Timeline
- 14'
Sub
David Otorbi → Dani Raba
- 34'
Yellow
Dani Raba
- 36'
VAR
Dani Raba
- 37'
Yellow
Renato Veiga
- 38'
Goal
Pepelu (pen) league goal #1
- 43'
Yellow
Ayoze Pérez
- 59'
Yellow
Tajon Buchanan
- 60'
Yellow
Pablo Maffeo
- 62'
Yellow
Guido Rodríguez
- 65'
Sub
Juan Foyth → Sergi Cardona
- 65'
Sub
Ilias Akhomach → Alberto Moleiro
- 66'
Sub
Ayoze Pérez → Georges Mikautadze
- 69'
Goal
Alexander Freeman league goal #1 assist Sergi Cardona
- 70'
Sub
Dani Raba → Arnau Martínez
- 70'
Sub
Javi Guerra → Harvey Elliott
- 77'
Sub
Pablo Maffeo → Filip Ugrinić
- 77'
Sub
Justin De Haas → Hugo Duro
- 78'
VAR
Pape Gueye
- 79'
Red
Pape Gueye
- 82'
Sub
Gerard Moreno → Santi Comesaña
- 87'
Sub
Tajon Buchanan → Pau Navarro
- 89'
Yellow
Harvey Elliott
- 89'
Red
Harvey Elliott
- 90+6'
Goal
Georges Mikautadze league goal #3 assist Alberto Moleiro
Category leaders
- Key passesTajon Buchanan4
- Duels wonCarlos Maciá7/12
- DribblesLuis Rioja2/2
- Defensive actionsSantiago Mouriño5
- ShotsPape Gueye6 (on target 0)
- Fouls wonPepelu3
#Valencia#Villarreal#La Liga#Alexander Freeman#Georges Mikautadze#Matchweek 10
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.