Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid: Mbappé's brace settles it
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- 0.07 xG per shot: Barcelona's lowest this season
- Madrid's 0.2 xG per shot: their best this season
- Lunin made 5 saves as Madrid held on with 38%
Madrid win at Camp Nou on 38% of the ball
Real Madrid won at Spotify Camp Nou despite having only 38% of the ball. Kylian Mbappé scored in the 41st minute, Raphinha levelled in the 61st, and Mbappé struck again in the 87th. Barcelona held most of the possession, but the match was settled by a late Madrid goal, and the home side's territory brought no reward.
Barcelona's shots were plentiful but poor
Barcelona's attempts were worth just 0.07 xG each, the lowest in their 12 matches this season. Rodri, one of two changes to the starting side, was busy with 96 passes, yet the volume of play did not translate into better chances. Raphinha took the most shots of anyone but managed only one on target, which sums up a low-quality attack.
Madrid's few chances were far better
Madrid took 10 shots, fewer than their season average, but they were worth 0.2 xG each, the highest figure of their campaign so far. Andriy Lunin, one of several changes to the starting line-up, made five saves. Jude Bellingham led the match in defensive actions, so the efficiency at both ends was what kept Madrid in front.
A substitute's assist set up the winner
Eduardo Camavinga, introduced from the bench, provided the pass for Mbappé's winner in the 87th minute. Raphinha's equaliser had restored the balance, but the last big moment belonged to Madrid. The goal was worth +1.6 FN xPts to the visitors while Barcelona's FN xPts fell by 1.0, the largest combined movement of the match.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Kylian Mbappé 8.6Dominant
Two goals from three shots, two on target, plus two key passes.
Mbappé's value came almost entirely from attacking returns. He touched the ball only 18 times in the passing stats, yet both of his shots on target went in, giving Madrid the lead in the 41st minute and the win in the 87th. He also won five of nine duels and drew four fouls, which kept Madrid's counter-attacking threat alive.
Game state
0-11-11-2
Barcelona ahead 0 min · level 67 min · Real Madrid ahead 23 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
41'
Kylian Mbappé
Goal · BAR −0.8
+0.8
61'
Raphinha
Goal · scorer +0.6 · assist Pedri +0.3 · RMA −1.0
+0.9
87'
Kylian Mbappé
Goal · scorer +1.1 · assist Eduardo Camavinga +0.5 · BAR −1.0
+1.6
Barcelona
Expected (last two seasons) 1.9Own moments +0.9Opponent moments −1.8Time effect −1.0→ League points won 0
Real Madrid
Expected (last two seasons) 0.9Own moments +2.4Opponent moments −1.0Time effect +0.7→ League points won 3
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
BarcelonaReal Madrid
1.27Expected goals (xG)2.01
Compared with usual
Barcelona
12 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4.2 | low |
| Conceded | 2 | 1.3 | |
| xG | 1.27 | 3.5 | low |
| xG against | 2.01 | 1.2 | |
| Shots | 18 | 21.3 | |
| On target | 6 | 8.4 | |
| Shots faced | 10 | 7.7 | |
| xG per shot | 0.07 | 0.18 | low |
| Possession | 62% | 68.9% | |
| Passes | 640 | 691.3 | |
| Corners | 6 | 6.6 | |
| Fouls | 15 | 9.8 | high |
Real Madrid
12 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2.8 | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.2 | |
| xG | 2.01 | 2.4 | |
| xG against | 1.27 | 1.1 | |
| Shots | 10 | 17.3 | |
| On target | 5 | 7.7 | |
| Shots faced | 18 | 13.4 | |
| xG per shot | 0.2 | 0.13 | high |
| Possession | 38% | 52.1% | |
| Passes | 380 | 525.3 | |
| Corners | 6 | 6.5 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 9.2 | |
Timeline
- 30'
Sub
Xavi Espart → Alejandro Balde
- 41'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé league goal #10
- 46'
Yellow
Aurélien Tchouaméni
- 61'
Goal
Raphinha league goal #13 assist Pedri
- 62'
Sub
Federico Valverde → Denzel Dumfries
- 74'
Sub
Fermín → Frenkie de Jong
- 80'
Sub
Bernardo Silva → Eduardo Camavinga
- 84'
Yellow
Anthony Gordon
- 85'
Sub
Anthony Gordon → Karim Adeyemi
- 86'
Sub
Raphinha → Gabriel Jesus
- 87'
Goal
Kylian Mbappé league goal #11 assist Eduardo Camavinga
- 90+2'
Yellow
Marc Cucurella
- 90+4'
Yellow
Kylian Mbappé
- 90+4'
Sub
Arda Güler → Trent Alexander-Arnold
- 90+4'
Sub
Yan Diomande → Carlos Espí
- 90+6'
Yellow
Karim Adeyemi
- 90+6'
Yellow
Alejandro Balde
Category leaders
- Key passesPedri4
- Duels wonJude Bellingham13/18
- DribblesYan Diomande4/7
- Defensive actionsJude Bellingham7
- ShotsRaphinha6 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonJude Bellingham5
#La Liga#Barcelona#Real Madrid#Kylian Mbappé#Raphinha#Pedri
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.