Marseille 4-3 Le Havre: a four-goal cushion nearly lost
AI-written review based on match data · How we make it
Key numbers
- xG 1.63, four goals: finishing carried Marseille
- xG 3.02 v 1.63: Le Havre had the better chances
- Three goals from 77' to 89', all by substitutes
Four clear, then a scare
Marseille were 4-0 up by the 55th minute and appeared to have the match won. Le Havre scored three times from the 77th minute to make it 4-3, leaving the hosts to hold on deep into stoppage time. It turned a comfortable lead into a nervy finish at the Orange Vélodrome.
Few shots, plenty of goals
Marseille scored four goals from an xG of 1.63, outperforming it by 2.37, while taking fewer shots than their season average. That suggests sharp finishing rather than volume built the early lead, with CJ Egan-Riley and Timothy Weah both on the scoresheet before the break.
Le Havre created the better chances
Le Havre's xG of 3.02 sat well above their average of 1.4 across seven matches this season. Marseille also faced more shots than their season average, which suggests the visitors' threat was real, although the data do not show when in the match those chances came.
A fifth-minute goal gave Marseille room to breathe
Egan-Riley's opener in the fifth minute was worth +0.4 FN xPts to Marseille, while Le Havre's FN xPts fell by 0.4, the largest combined movement of the match. All three Le Havre goals came from substitutes, Josh Maja twice and Lamine N'Diaye once, but each carried little FN xPts weight.
FN MOM
Highest FN Score · our own pick by a published formula, not the official Player of the Match
Timothy Weah 8.5Dominant
Five tackles, three interceptions and a 33rd-minute goal made him the FN MOM.
Weah's value came largely from his work without the ball: five tackles, three interceptions and six of nine duels won over the full 90 minutes. His goal in the 33rd minute made it 2-0 at the break, a cushion that proved vital once Le Havre scored three late goals and Marseille had to protect the win.
Game state
1-02-03-04-04-14-24-3
Marseille ahead 85 min · level 5 min · Le Havre ahead 0 min
FN xPts — what each moment was worth
How much each moment changed that team's expected points (win 3, draw 1). A goal's value is credited 70% to the scorer and 30% to the assist. The value next to a team code is what the same moment did to the other side's expected points; the decisive moment is the one with the largest combined change for both teams.
5'
CJ Egan-Riley
Goal · scorer +0.3 · assist Emerson +0.1 · HAC −0.4
+0.4
33'
Timothy Weah
Goal · HAC −0.2
+0.3
50'
Igor Paixão
Goal · assist Amine Gouiri · HAC −0.1
+0.1
55'
Himad Abdelli
Goal · HAC 0.0
0.0
77'
Josh Maja
Pen goal · OM 0.0
0.0
86'
Lamine N'Diaye
Goal · OM 0.0
0.0
89'
Josh Maja
Goal · assist Kaito Mizuta · OM −0.2
+0.1
Marseille
Expected (last two seasons) 2.1Own moments +0.8Opponent moments −0.2Time effect +0.3→ League points won 3
Le Havre
Expected (last two seasons) 0.7Own moments +0.1Opponent moments −0.7Time effect −0.1→ League points won 0
Expected points don't add up to a fixed total (a draw is 1 + 1), so an opponent's moment isn't simply the mirror of your loss. "Time effect" is the change as the clock runs down on a lead or a chase, and isn't credited to any player.
How FN Score and FN xPts work →
Match stats
MarseilleLe Havre
1.63Expected goals (xG)3.02
Compared with usual
Marseille
10 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1.5 | |
| Conceded | 3 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 1.63 | 1.5 | |
| xG against | 3.02 | 1.6 | |
| Shots | 11 | 13.1 | |
| On target | 5 | 4.3 | |
| Shots faced | 20 | 15.1 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.12 | |
| Possession | 53% | 57.6% | |
| Passes | 478 | 577.8 | |
| Corners | 4 | 4.7 | |
| Fouls | 14 | 11.1 | |
Le Havre
7 matches this season, all competitions baseline
| This match | Avg | |
|---|
| Goals | 3 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded | 4 | 1.6 | |
| xG | 3.02 | 1.4 | |
| xG against | 1.63 | 1.7 | |
| Shots | 20 | 15.7 | |
| On target | 7 | 4.7 | |
| Shots faced | 11 | 12.9 | |
| xG per shot | 0.15 | 0.09 | |
| Possession | 47% | 49.6% | |
| Passes | 401 | 408.7 | |
| Corners | 3 | 5.7 | |
| Fouls | 11 | 14.6 | |
Timeline
- 5'
Goal
CJ Egan-Riley league goal #1 assist Emerson
- 33'
Goal
Timothy Weah league goal #1
- 50'
Goal
Igor Paixão league goal #2 assist Amine Gouiri
- 55'
Goal
Himad Abdelli league goal #3
- 61'
Sub
Rassoul Ndiaye → Josh Maja
- 61'
Sub
Mbwana Ally Samatta → Sota Nakamura
- 77'
Sub
Amir Richardson → Daren Nbenbege Mosengo
- 77'
Sub
Enzo Koffi → Lamine N'Diaye
- 77'
Goal
Josh Maja (pen) league goal #2
- 78'
Sub
Amine Harit → Keyliane Abdallah
- 78'
Sub
Amine Gouiri → Neal Maupay
- 83'
Yellow
Simon Ebonog
- 84'
Sub
Rayan Fofana → Kaito Mizuta
- 84'
Sub
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg → Angel Gomes
- 84'
Sub
Himad Abdelli → Nouhoum Kamissoko
- 86'
Goal
Lamine N'Diaye league goal #1
- 89'
Goal
Josh Maja league goal #3 assist Kaito Mizuta
- 90+2'
Sub
Igor Paixão → Ulisses Garcia
- 90+6'
VAR
Kaito Mizuta
- 90+10'
Yellow
Ayumu Seko
- 90+11'
Yellow
Lamine N'Diaye
Category leaders
- Key passesIgor Paixão2
- Duels wonSimon Ebonog9/13
- DribblesSimon Ebonog3/3
- Defensive actionsNayef Aguerd8
- ShotsHimad Abdelli3 (on target 1)
- Fouls wonRayan Fofana5
#Marseille#Le Havre#Ligue 1#Timothy Weah#Josh Maja#FN Score
This review was written by AI from match data (API-Football). FN Score and FN xPts are calculated by Fulltime Note using a published formula.